FORECASTING THE NUMBER OF FOREIGN TOURISM IN BALI USING THE HYBRID HOLT-WINTERS-ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK METHOD

Bali was one of the destinations frequently visited by tourists because it had natural beauty, especially in tourism sector. The number foreign coming to until 2019 increased, but there been a very significant decrease 2020. Forecasting future needed provide input or recommendations government and business people anticipating decisions taken process developing sector Bali. One forecasting methods that can be used Holt-Winters method. method part Exponential Smoothing which is based on smoothing stationary, trend seasonal elements. However, only capture linear patterns, so non-linear patterns. Artificial Neural Network proposed overcome shortcomings Method. This research focused visiting using Hybrid Holt Winters-Artificial results showed data fluctuated every month. best for predicting (α = 0.987, β 0.000001, γ 1)-Artificial (12-15-1) has accuracy as indicated MAD value 0.036684, MSE 0.01098698 MAPE 6.30417%.